UK Set to Raise ILR Wait From 5 to 10 Years: What's Confirmed and Can It Be Challenged

On 2 November 2026, UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced the Earned Settlement policy, under which the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) is planned to rise from 5 to 10 years for most migrants — but for now this is an announcement, not a rule change in force.

In short

• The qualifying period for ILR is proposed to rise from 5 to 10 years for most migrants, including those on a Skilled Worker visa.
• At the time of the announcement, Appendix Skilled Worker still sets the old 5-year period — the legal rule hasn’t changed yet.
• In 2008–2009, the High Court in the HSMP Forum cases found it unlawful to retroactively change terms for migrants who had already entered.
• The increase can only be challenged where there were specific government assurances creating a legitimate expectation — not simply because an old rule existed.
• Documents on visa status, income and key dates are worth keeping now, to be able to prove your immigration history if it’s needed.

What is the Earned Settlement policy, and why is the ILR wait being pushed to 10 years

On 2 November 2026, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood unveiled the Earned Settlement policy. Its core idea is that indefinite leave to remain (ILR) no longer gets granted automatically once a fixed residence period passes — settlement has to be “earned.”

settlement has to be “earned.”

Under the plan, the qualifying period for ILR rises from 5 to 10 years for most migrants, including those who came on a Skilled Worker visa and were counting on applying for ILR after 5 years. The 10-year period won’t apply to everyone: the government has carved out exceptions with different timelines for certain applicant categories.

Who keeps the 5-year route — or even 3 years

The shift to a 10-year period won’t apply across the board. According to the government’s announcement, shorter routes remain for some applicants:

• 5 years — reportedly for workers earning above a certain income threshold (preliminary reports put it around £50,271), plus some doctors, nurses and teachers; exact parameters haven’t been locked into final rules yet;
• 3 years — preliminary reports suggest this applies to the highest earners within that same group; this figure isn’t confirmed in a final rules text either;
• 5 years — for care workers who meet their visa conditions and earn at least a set minimum (preliminary reports suggest around £25,000 a year); the exact figure could shift in the final rules;
• another 5-year visa — a second chance for care workers who fall short of the main conditions, giving them another attempt at reaching settlement.

The income and category conditions are currently laid out in the policy announcement, not yet locked in as final rules.

Is this law yet, or just an announcement: what applies right now

A government announcement and immigration rules actually in force are two different things — a statement alone doesn’t change the legal rule. At the time of the announcement, Appendix Skilled Worker still sets a 5-year qualifying period for ILR; there’s no 10-year figure in the rules text yet.

When and to whom the new 10-year rule will actually apply will be determined by the Statement of Changes, its effective date, and any transitional provisions — those documents will define the exact moment and the exact people the change covers.

The gap feels real in practice: someone arrived in the UK in 2023, worked legally, paid income tax and National Insurance contributions, moved their family over, and their kids started at a local school. They were planning on ILR after 5 years from arrival. After the announcement, a real question arises: will they now have to wait 10 years longer than originally planned. That’s the core legal question — does the government have the right to change an already-charted route to settlement for people who arrived and started that journey under different terms.

will they now have to wait 10 years longer than originally planned

Can the ILR wait increase be challenged: the HSMP Forum precedents

In 2008, the UK High Court heard R (HSMP Forum) Ltd — highly skilled migrants challenged a change to the government’s immigration policy. The claimants argued that they came to the country under a particular settlement scheme, made major life decisions on that basis, and were now having the terms changed retroactively. The court sided with the migrants: it held that changing terms for people who had already entered on the strength of specific government promises and scheme conditions could amount to outright unfairness and an abuse of power.

A second HSMP Forum case dealt specifically with the ILR waiting period: the government had extended that period, and the High Court, according to available reporting, found it unlawful to apply the new condition to migrants who had already been enrolled under the old HSMP scheme.

That invites an obvious parallel: if a past increase in the waiting period was successfully challenged, why couldn’t the current jump from 5 to 10 years be challenged too? Legally, such a challenge is possible. But the HSMP Forum rulings don’t automatically hand every current Skilled Worker a legal right to keep the five-year period — in those cases, claimants had specific representations and promises from the government that created a legitimate expectation.

Legitimate expectation: the key legal question for any new case

The HSMP Forum rulings don’t mean every current Skilled Worker automatically gets a right to ILR after 5 years — those cases turned on specific government statements that created a legitimate expectation for the claimants. According to available reporting, in one of the precedents a higher court noted that immigration rules can change, and absent transitional protection, an application is normally decided under the rules in force at the time it’s considered. So the argument “the 5-year rule was in place when I arrived” isn’t, on its own, enough for a court.

The key questions for a judicial review would be: were migrants given specific assurances that created a legitimate expectation; were their individual circumstances considered; is the change disproportionate or conspicuously unfair; and were reasonable transitional arrangements put in place. The government is entitled to change immigration policy, but that power isn’t above public-law fairness and judicial scrutiny — the 2008 and 2009 rulings confirm that courts can, in certain circumstances, review such policy.

At the same time, a legitimate expectation isn’t the same as a legal guarantee: no one can promise today that settlement will be granted automatically after 5 years of residence. But it’s equally wrong to say there’s no legal route left to challenge the change.

no one can promise today that settlement will be granted automatically after 5 years of residence

What to do right now: evidence worth keeping

1. Gather your visa status and employment history documents. Keep your visa grant decisions, cover letters, certificate of sponsorship, proof of employment, P60 forms, pay slips, employment contracts, and HMRC records of tax and National Insurance contributions.

2. Pin down the dates in your immigration history. Note separately the date your current status reaches 5 years of residence — that’s the key reference point for any next steps.

3. Keep evidence of the life decisions you made because of the move. If you left a stable job, relocated your family, made decisions about your children’s education, or took on financial commitments to move to the UK — proof of those steps carries separate legal weight in any individual case.

4. Check whether your route falls under an exception. The government has announced that settlement routes for family members of British citizens, BN(O) holders, participants in the Hong Kong route, armed forces personnel and a number of other categories remain unchanged — it’s worth checking your specific visa route against that list.

5. If your 5-year period is expiring soon, check your eligibility to apply now. Do this under the rules currently in force, rather than waiting to see how policy changes.

6. Don’t ignore current status requirements. News of possible changes isn’t a reason to delay a visa extension or skip checking that you still meet the conditions of lawful stay.

If it does come down to a legal challenge, what decides the outcome won’t be emotion but facts, documents and legal principles — which is why the evidence you keep now, and tracking the transitional provisions of any new rules, carries direct practical weight.

What to keep and check right now

• Visa grant decisionsrequired
• Cover letters and certificate of sponsorshiprequired
• Proof of employment, P60 forms, pay slipsrequired
• Employment contractsrequired
• HMRC records of tax and National Insurance contributionsrequired
• The date your current status reaches 5 years of residencerequiredkey reference point
• Evidence of life decisions made because of the moveleaving a job, relocating family, children’s education, financial commitments
• Whether your route falls under an exceptionrequiredfamily of British citizens, BN(O), Hong Kong route, armed forces, etc.
• Eligibility to apply under current rulesrequiredif your 5-year period is expiring soon
• Visa extension and compliance with current status requirementsrequireddon’t delay because of news about changes

Frequently asked questions

What happens if my visa’s 5-year period is already expiring soon

If your five-year residence period is expiring soon, it’s worth checking your eligibility to apply now, under the rules currently in force, rather than waiting for the policy to change: Appendix Skilled Worker still sets a 5-year qualifying period for ILR.

Can I still apply for ILR after the Earned Settlement policy announcement, before the new rules take effect

Yes: the policy announcement alone doesn’t change the legal rule, and at the time of the announcement Appendix Skilled Worker still sets a 5-year qualifying period. Until a Statement of Changes with an effective date is published, applying under the current rules remains possible.

Is it worth hiring a lawyer or preparing a legal challenge in advance

The HSMP Forum precedents show that the success of a legal challenge depends on specific government assurances that created a legitimate expectation, individual circumstances, and whether transitional arrangements existed — that is, on documents and facts, not on the intent to challenge alone. So the practical step right now is to gather and preserve evidence of your immigration history, rather than launching proceedings straight away.

What happens if the new rules are adopted with a transitional period for migrants already in the country

That’s exactly what a Statement of Changes would need to establish: its effective date and transitional provisions would show whether the new 10-year rule applies to people already in the country under the old terms, or whether they get some protection. The absence of reasonable transitional arrangements is one of the key arguments a court weighs when assessing whether a change is lawful.

How do I find out whether my visa falls under one of the exceptions to the 10-year period

You need to check your visa route against the announced list: the government has stated that settlement routes for family members of British citizens, BN(O) holders, participants in the Hong Kong route, armed forces personnel and a number of other categories are to remain unchanged.

If I fall under an exception, can I count on settlement being granted automatically after 5 years

No: even for categories that keep the 5-year period, a legitimate expectation isn’t the same as a legal guarantee — no one can promise today that settlement will be granted automatically just because the period has passed. An application is still decided under the rules in force at the time it’s considered, unless the applicant has separate transitional protection.