After a pause, IRCC usually starts with a smaller round rather than a large one: the forecast points to 2,000–3,000 invitations. The first round is estimated to have a minimum score no lower than 550–560. After that, scores are expected to settle in the 525–530 range, as the group with 40 points for Canadian work experience fills up with many candidates.
Why the first round is likely to be small
Based on IRCC’s past behavior, the first round after a pause is usually conservative: a round with fewer invitations rather than a large one right away. It’s expected to be roughly 2,000 to 4,000, with 2,000–3,000 more likely at the start. The minimum score for the first round is estimated to be no lower than 550–560.
If the number turns out higher, that would be a pleasant surprise.
Why scores are likely to settle in the 525–530 range
A key role is played by the group that gets 40 points for work experience and 70 points for having a job offer. This segment is large: candidates with a job offer and no Canadian experience score around 470–490, while those with a job offer score around 550. Those who already have Canadian experience score around 500–510, and with 40 points they climb higher.
For this reason, the 530–550 range will be densely filled. There are especially many people with 40 points in the IT segment.
What limits the inflow is that the high-wage occupations category (186) includes many occupations that require permanent resident or Canadian citizen status rather than temporary status. So the pool fills more slowly than one might expect. A significant share of candidates who earn these 40 points in Canada are intra-company transferees or spouses of international students. They have no points for Canadian education, and their total score is around 475–490. Such candidates will get 40 points, but they too will fall into the 520–530 range.
If rounds remain large
Scores won’t necessarily hold steady at 525–530. If IRCC continues running large rounds, sharp drops are possible. This year the minimum score has already fallen to 507–509. With large rounds it could drop again to 515–518.
If IRCC instead runs rounds of roughly 2,000–2,500 invitations, as in recent months, scores are forecast to settle in the 525–527 range with periodic spikes and dips.
What happens in the second phase
The scenario described applies only to the first phase. In the second phase, much will change, and this will also change the score forecasts. Right now we’re talking about high scores, but at some point they will start to decline, and a different score level will emerge. The exact timing is not yet known, and only practice will show the final picture.
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